Needham downgraded Biogen Inc BIIB, citing restricted catalysts for the corporate over the following yr.
Alzheimer’s drug Leqembi’s (lecanemab) gross sales progress is anticipated to remain gradual and not using a sharp enhance within the close to future. The analyst remarked that the doctor suggestions and knowledgeable opinions point out this gradual tempo will proceed.
Leqembi’s third-quarter world in-market gross sales had been roughly $67 million, together with U.S. in-market gross sales of roughly $39 million.
Though traders are conscious of this, market expectations are nonetheless excessive. Biogen will face ongoing challenges as these expectations are adjusted to extra sensible ranges.
In a optimistic transfer, final week, the Committee for Medicinal Merchandise for Human Use (CHMP) of the European Medicines Company (EMA) advisable approval of Eisai Co., Ltd ESALY and Biogen’s lecanemab for early Alzheimer’s illness.
Needham tasks Skyclarys’ fourth-quarter gross sales to succeed in roughly $116 million and $608 million for 2025. This aligns with administration’s feedback suggesting that U.S. gross sales progress could also be uneven, whereas worldwide progress could possibly be slower because of pricing negotiations and a gradual enhance within the variety of sufferers on remedy.
Revenues from Skyclarys, acquired by way of Reata acquisition, reached $102.3 million throughout the quarter.
Needham writes that revenues are anticipated to stay flat or decline barely till 2026, as it would take time for brand new merchandise like Leqembi, Skyclarys, and Zurzuvae to develop sufficient to offset the drop in current enterprise.
Postpartum melancholy drug Zurzuvae’s third-quarter gross sales reached $22 million.
Needham has downgraded the inventory from Purchase to Maintain with no value goal, in comparison with $270 earlier.
Revenues are projected to fall by a small share in 2024, stay steady in 2025, and enhance by about 3% in 2026, assuming continued progress from key product launches.
Working margins are anticipated to enhance by 80 foundation factors in 2025, pushed by the Match for Development program, although that is already broadly anticipated.
Enterprise improvement might assist progress within the quick to medium time period, however the timing and nature of such offers are arduous to foretell.
Worth Motion: BIIB inventory is down 1.15% at $158.15 on the final test on Monday.
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