Thursday, September nineteenth, 2024
Pre-market futures are feeling themselves this morning. We’d simply handed the crucible of the “larger for longer” time period of rates of interest from the Fed — a sequence of typically vital fee hikes from March 2022 by means of July 2023, with greater than a yr in a holding sample at 5.25-5.50% — however yesterday signaled a brand new period of bringing down these charges within the continued effort to convey a “comfortable touchdown” to the financial system.
Market members have lots to cheer this morning, because the Fed seems to have engineered what many specialists had figured was unimaginable: getting by means of the tightening cycle with out “breaking” one thing and sending us into recession. After all, with the labor market wanting shakier in current months, we’re not utterly out of the woods, however let’s not spoil the social gathering simply but.
The Dow is up +463 factors at this hour, +1.1% — and it’s the weakest of the key indexes this morning. The S&P 500 is up +87 factors, +1.55%, and the Nasdaq is at the moment +414 factors, +2.14%. The small-cap Russell 2000 proper now has gained +52 factors, +2.39%.
Jobless Claims Come Down: 219K on Preliminary, 1.829M Persevering with
The labor market outlier of late has been the Weekly Jobless Claims studies, which have remained well-behaved by means of a lot of what we’ve seen eroding from different employment numbers. A part of this may occasionally must do with the excessive variety of Child Boomers — and now Gen-X — staff who, as an alternative of submitting for unemployment upon being laid off from their job, as an alternative merely name it a profession.
This morning’s Preliminary Jobless Claims are even higher than regular: 219K is the bottom weekly complete we’ve seen since mid-Might, and 10K under consensus expectations. This follows a barely upwardly revised 231K the earlier week, and even that was thought-about “secure” territory.
Persevering with Claims reached 1.829 million for the week previous to final (Persevering with Claims are all the time every week in arrears from new claims), which is the slimmest determine since mid-June. It follows a downwardly revised 1.843 million — nonetheless above 1.8 million, the place we’ve been for weeks, however nonetheless sub-1.9 million.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Surprises to Upside
Even right this moment’s Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September introduced considerably excellent news: at a headline +1.7, it swings to a constructive from the estimated -1.1 and the unrevised -7.0 reported a month in the past. This makes seven months out of 9 in 2024 the place Philly Fed manufacturing has registered a constructive quantity.
What to Anticipate As we speak: Current Residence Gross sales, Financial Indicators
After right this moment’s open, Current Residence Gross sales for August are anticipated to trim down a notch sequentially, to three.9 million seasonally adjusted, annualized models from 3.95 million reported final month. Over time, with the Fed easing cycle now underway — and with it decrease mortgage charges — we count on each new and present residence gross sales figures to enhance from right here.
Additionally Main Financial Indicators (LEI) for August will hit the tape slightly later this morning. Right here we count on a detrimental -0.3%, however that is nonetheless an enchancment from the -0.6% reported a month in the past.
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