Inflation Outlook Transferring Ahead
The short-term outlook for inflation is extremely unsure. US tariffs may decrease eurozone inflation by decreasing exports and slowing financial progress. These tariffs additionally improve the availability of products within the eurozone because the US makes it more durable to entry their market. Nevertheless, if the European Fee retaliates, it may push inflation increased since these measures act like a home tax that buyers will partly bear.
Final yr in March, ECB President Lagarde hinted at potential fee cuts, saying, “we are going to know a little bit extra in April and much more in June.” This yr, by April, she’ll have far more readability on US tariffs on European items and the EU’s deliberate response, which will probably be mentioned on the April ECB assembly. This can play an enormous position in deciding future rates of interest.
One concern is that the job market remains to be very tight, with hitting a report low of 6.1% in February, in response to Eurostat information launched on Tuesday. For now, at this time’s lower-than-expected inflation helps the case for one more fee minimize to deliver charges nearer to impartial.
Markets are actually pricing in round an 82% likelihood of a 25 bps fee minimize on the ECB assembly on April 17.
ECB Curiosity Price Expectations
Supply: LSEG
Markets are actually bracing for ‘liberation day’ tariffs from US President Donald Trump tomorrow.
On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde informed France Inter radio that April 2, referred to as “Liberation Day” by Trump, ought to be a time for everybody to work collectively to take “higher management of our future” and transfer in the direction of independence.
As for what to anticipate from the tariff announcement tomorrow, The Washington Put up reported on Tuesday that White Home employees have ready a plan to introduce a 20% tariff on most items imported into the U.S.
In response to the report, President Donald Trump’s workforce is contemplating utilizing the huge income from these tariffs to supply tax refunds or dividends. Whether or not it will work is debatable given the historical past of tariffs and their affect on international markets.
Technical Evaluation – DAX Index (DAX 40)
Taking a look at from a technical standpoint, the index has loved a stellar 2025 YTD.
Nevertheless, current technicals have steered {that a} potential correction could also be within the offing with a possible double high sample forming at current highs. A break of the neckline has but to materialize nonetheless, and at this time’s weaker inflation information has helped with that.
Nevertheless, a day by day candle shut beneath the 22405 deal with (neckline) may result in an accelerated selloff within the DAX simply as President Trump prepares his tariff bulletins.
This leaves the DAX in a precarious state of affairs at current, with speedy resistance resting at 22886, 23200 and naturally the current highs at 23454.
Rapid assist rests at 22405, 21758 earlier than the 200-day MA comes into focus at 21164.
DAX 40 Each day Chart, April 1, 2025 
Supply: TradingView.com
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