Right here’s a refined abstract of yesterday’s FOMC , as reported by the Kobeissi Letter:
- Fed cuts rates of interest by 50 foundation factors for the primary time since 2020.
- Two further 25 foundation level cuts anticipated in 2024.
- Governor Bowman dissented for the primary time since 2005, advocating for a 25 foundation level minimize.
- The Fed expresses “better confidence” that inflation is trending towards 2%.
- They may “fastidiously assess incoming knowledge” to regulate their outlook.
- Anticipate 100 foundation factors of cuts in 2025 and 50 foundation factors in 2026.
- The much-anticipated “Fed pivot” has formally begun.
Nonetheless, it’s essential to mood celebrations:
Traditionally, when the Fed carried out its first minimize of fifty+ foundation factors:
- On January 3, 2001, the fell about 39% over the following 448 days, resulting in a recession.
- On September 18, 2007, the S&P 500 dropped roughly 54% over the following 372 days, coinciding with a 5.3% rise in unemployment and a recession.
But, the present panorama differs considerably from 2001 and 2008. The tech sector seems extra to be present process a correction than a bubble burst, and there’s no looming actual property disaster or mortgage meltdown.
So, what’s subsequent for this week?
We might expertise a delicate touchdown, and stagflation may emerge as a prevailing theme, with additional easing seemingly. As I typically point out within the media, stagflation is a velocity bump to recession.
Regardless, I’ll be holding a detailed eye on the Retail ETF (NYSE:).
Over 80 I’m all in on a bull run in equities.
Beneath 70, I’m cautious, if not bearish, in equities.
What About Commodities?
We’ve got to look at the to see if 100 holds or not.
Except there’s a vital rally, a bounce from right here shouldn’t be too impactful.
Nonetheless, if there’s a enormous drop beneath 100, that would cut back Granny’s buying energy, drive costs larger and provides us that stagflation.
For commodities?
We advocate you watch and .
At this level, DBC (article yesterday) should make up its thoughts.
However DBA seems about to sort out the 2024 highs.
Each will inform you higher than the rest the place laborious belongings are going and in flip, inflation.
ETF Abstract
(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that degree and bearish beneath)
- S&P 500 (SPY) 560 pivotal
- (IWM) 210 pivotal 220 resistance
- Dow (DIA) New all-time excessive and reverse???
- Nasdaq (QQQ) 465 help 477 resistance
- Regional banks (KRE) 57 pivotal and a sector to look at
- Semiconductors (SMH) 230 help 240 pivotal- a crash right here not wholesome
- Transportation (IYT) 67.00 support-this preferred the speed minimize
- Biotechnology (IBB) 145 help 150 resistance
- Retail (XRT) 73.50 help 77 resistance
- iShares iBoxx Hello Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Made a brand new excessive and closed on the lows of the each day range-keep watching
