By Vuyani Ndaba
JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Inflation in key African economies will sluggish into subsequent yr however stay stubbornly excessive in Nigeria resulting from sporadic flooding and troublesome terrain for the naira foreign money, a Reuters ballot discovered.
The acute scarcity of {dollars} in a lot of the continent together with Angola, Nigeria and Zambia has usually put residence inflation underneath important pressure resulting from a reliance on single commodity foreign money inflows similar to and .
Nonetheless, the ballot of 15 analysts taken up to now week confirmed inflation would average extra in international locations with higher diversified sources of greenback revenues similar to Kenya.
Inflation in Nigeria is predicted to quicken to 29.1% this yr from a median of 24.5% final yr, earlier than it slows to 17.2% subsequent yr. It hit a 28-year excessive of 33.2% in annual phrases final month.
Nigeria central financial institution governor Olayemi Cardoso raised the financial coverage price by 200 foundation factors to 24.75% final month after a 400 foundation level hike in February.
Even with a extra coherent financial coverage now in place, and potential naira stability, Nigerian inflation will solely fall slowly this yr, Citi wrote in a notice to shoppers.
The excessive inflation price displays ongoing elevated meals worth inflation which accounts for round 50% of the CPI basket and is just marginally impacted by financial coverage, Citi added.
Excessive meals worth inflation is a results of flooding seen in lots of components of the nation in recent times, the rising price of fertilizer and persevering with insecurity in lots of food-producing areas.
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Ghana inflation averaged 40.3% final yr, however is predicted to sluggish markedly to 18.7% this yr after which to 12.1% in 2025.
Angolan inflation is forecast to sluggish to final yr’s common of 13.6% subsequent yr from 23.7% this yr, whereas in Zambia it was seen slowing to eight.0% in 2025 from 12.3% this yr.
Inflation in Kenya will stay one of many most-tamed within the area other than South Africa, slowing to a median of 5.6% subsequent yr in contrast with 6.3% this yr, the ballot discovered.
Customary Chartered stated it lowered its inflation forecasts final week to permit for current Kenyan shilling appreciation and improved meals costs.
A separate ballot earlier this month predicted inflation in South Africa would sluggish to 4.6% subsequent yr from 5.1% this yr.
(Different tales from the Reuters world financial ballot)
