Key Takeaways
- MOS inventory has reported adverse earnings surprises of round 10.2% over the previous 4 quarters.
- MOS shares have misplaced 19.6% the previous 12 months in comparison with the broader Fertilizer business’s 10.3% decline.
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The Mosaic Firm MOS is ready to launch third-quarter 2024 outcomes earlier than the opening bell on Nov. 12.
Keep up-to-date with all quarterly releases: See Zacks Earnings Calendar.
The fertilizer maker delivered a adverse earnings shock of round 10.2%, on common, over the trailing 4 quarters. It delivered a adverse earnings shock of round 20.6% within the final reported quarter. The corporate’s third-quarter outcomes are more likely to mirror favorable demand for phosphate and potash. Weaker fertilizer costs and operational disruptions are anticipated to have affected its efficiency.
Mosaic’s shares have misplaced 19.6% up to now 12 months in contrast with the Zacks Fertilizers business’s 10.3% decline.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
Let’s see how issues are shaping up for this announcement.
What do MOS’s Income Estimates Point out?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mosaic’s third-quarter consolidated gross sales is at the moment pegged at $3,284.3 million, calling for a decline of seven.4% from the year-ago quarter’s tally.
Components at Play for MOS Inventory
Mosaic is anticipated to have gained from favorable demand for phosphate and potash within the September quarter, aided by favorable agricultural circumstances. Engaging farm economics and improved affordability are driving demand for fertilizers globally. Farmer economics stays enticing in most world rising areas on robust crop demand and inexpensive inputs. Demand for grains and oilseeds stays excessive together with robust farm economics.
The corporate’s manufacturing volumes and shipments are more likely to have been impacted by operational challenges within the third quarter. Mosaic, in September 2024, famous that it encountered electrical tools failures, which impacted each the Esterhazy and Colonsay potash mines. MOS expects these operational challenges to scale back third-quarter potash manufacturing and cargo volumes by 200,000 to 300,000 tons. Manufacturing disruptions attributable to weather-related occasions together with Hurricane Francine are additionally anticipated to have impacted phosphate volumes and shipments within the quarter to be reported. MOS additionally curtailed shipments in late September in anticipation of Hurricane Helene.
Our estimate for potash gross sales volumes for the third quarter is pegged at 1.968 million tons. We additionally anticipate phosphate gross sales volumes for the quarter to be 1.634 million tons.
Weaker potash and phosphate costs could have impacted the corporate’s margins. Costs of phosphate and potash have retreated for the reason that again half of 2022 from their peak ranges attained within the first half driving on the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine warfare and disruptions as a result of sanctions in Belarus. Costs of crop vitamins remained below strain throughout 2023 because the resumption of exports from prime suppliers Belarus and Russia led to larger provides. Regardless of some restoration of late, weaker fertilizer costs are anticipated to have weighed on the corporate’s profitability within the September quarter.
Our estimate for common promoting value per ton for the Potash section is pegged at $219, reflecting a sequential decline of twenty-two.6%. We additionally anticipate common promoting value per ton for the Phosphate unit to be $572, indicating a 14.2% decline from the prior quarter.
What Our Mannequin Unveils for MOS Inventory
Our confirmed mannequin doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mosaic this season. The mixture of a optimistic Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Sturdy Purchase), 2 (Purchase) or 3 (Maintain) will increase the probabilities of an earnings beat. However that’s not the case right here.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for MOS is 0.00%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings for the third quarter is at the moment pegged at 58 cents. You’ll be able to uncover the very best shares to purchase or promote earlier than they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MOS at the moment carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Shares That Warrant a Look
Listed below are some firms you might need to take into account as our mannequin reveals they’ve the suitable mixture of parts to submit an earnings beat this quarter:
Hudbay Minerals Inc. HBM, scheduled to launch third-quarter earnings on Nov. 13, has an Earnings ESP of +3.06%.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Hudbay Minerals’ earnings for the third quarter is at the moment pegged at 5 cents. HBM at the moment carries a Zacks Rank #3. You’ll be able to see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Berry International Group, Inc. BERY, scheduled to launch earnings on Nov. 20, has an Earnings ESP of +0.25% and carries a Zacks Rank #3.
The consensus estimate for BERY’s earnings for the fiscal fourth quarter is at the moment pegged at $2.25.
CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA, slated to launch earnings on Nov. 12, has an Earnings ESP of +3.38% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at current.
The consensus mark for CAVA’s third-quarter earnings is at the moment pegged at 11 cents.
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The Mosaic Company (MOS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
HudBay Minerals Inc (HBM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Berry Global Group, Inc. (BERY) : Free Stock Analysis Report
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the creator and don’t essentially mirror these of Nasdaq, Inc.
