Novartis AG NVS, a Swiss pharma large, is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 and full-year results on Jan. 31, 2025.
The corporate’s earnings surpassed estimates in every of the trailing 4 quarters, the typical shock being 2.22%. Within the final reported quarter, NVS’ earnings beat estimates by 6.19%.
Discover the most recent EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Novartis AG Worth, Consensus and EPS Shock
Novartis AG price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Novartis AG Quote
Let’s have a look at how issues might need formed up previous to the announcement.
NVS’ Prime Income Drivers
With the profitable spin-off of the Sandoz enterprise in October 2023, Novartis operates as a single international working phase. It’s now concentrating on 4 core therapeutic areas — cardiovascular- renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience and oncology.
NVS’ fourth-quarter gross sales are more likely to have been boosted by robust development in Kisqali and Pluvicto gross sales. The corporate raised its gross sales and earnings outlook for 2024 when it reported third-quarter ends in October 2024.
Cardiovascular drug Entresto gross sales witnessed a stable year-over-year surge within the third quarter of 2024, pushed by sturdy demand-led development, with elevated penetration in the US and Europe following guideline-directed medical remedy in coronary heart failure, in addition to in China with elevated penetration in hypertension. The momentum is more likely to have continued within the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our mannequin estimate for Entresto’s fourth-quarter gross sales are pegged at $2 billion and $1.97 billion, respectively.
Cosentyx’s gross sales have additionally seemingly witnessed a surge, pushed by latest launches, together with the hidradenitis suppurativa indication (HS) and the intravenous formulation (IV) in the US, and quantity development in core indications.
Each the Zacks Consensus Estimate and our mannequin estimate for Cosentyx’s fourth-quarter gross sales are pegged at $1.7 billion.
Elevated demand has seemingly fueled a number of sclerosis drug Kesimpta’s gross sales within the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our mannequin estimate for Kesimpta’s fourth-quarter gross sales are pegged at $889 million and $895.4 million, respectively.
The stellar efficiency of the breast most cancers drug Kisqali has seemingly fueled the highest line within the fourth quarter. Gross sales ought to have grown strongly throughout all areas, primarily based on growing recognition of constantly reported total survival in HR+/HER2- superior breast most cancers.
Kisqali had earlier obtained FDA approval for a broad indication for HR+/HER2- stage II and III early breast most cancers (eBC) at excessive danger of recurrence, roughly doubling the inhabitants eligible for CDK4/6 inhibitor adjuvant remedy, with the inclusion of these with out nodal involvement. The label growth of the drug has seemingly given further impetus to gross sales.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our mannequin estimate for Kisqali’s fourth-quarter gross sales are pegged at $867 million and $874.2 million, respectively.
Strong gross sales development, pushed by robust demand in the US and Europe, has seemingly fueled Pluvicto’s gross sales within the fourth quarter.
Novartis had earlier acquired approval for Pluvicto’s expanded manufacturing capability at Millburn, NJ. With an unconstrained provide of Pluvicto at current, the corporate is now centered on initiating new sufferers.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our mannequin estimate for Pluvicto’s fourth-quarter gross sales are pegged at $372 million and $402 million, respectively.
Robust development in Leqvio, too, has seemingly fueled gross sales within the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate and our mannequin estimate for Leqvio’s fourth-quarter gross sales are pegged at $218 million and $213 million, respectively.
Different development drivers, resembling Jakavi and Tafinlar + Mekinist, have seemingly witnessed a rise in demand.
Nevertheless, generic competitors for Tasigna has seemingly affected gross sales, as within the earlier quarters.
Key Current Occasions
Earlier this month, the U.S. Court docket of Appeals for the Federal Circuit affirmed the validity of the Entresto (sacubitril/valsartan) mixture patent.
Whereas natural development continues to drive enterprise, NVS can also be centered on strategic bolt-in acquisitions to strengthen its pipeline. Final month, Novartis entered into a world license and collaboration settlement with PTC Therapeutics for the latter’s Huntington’s illness candidate to strengthen NVS’ neuroscience pipeline.
Novartis acquired Kate Therapeutics in November 2024 to strengthen its portfolio of gene therapies.
The European Fee has accepted Kisqali together with an aromatase inhibitor (AI) for the adjuvant therapy of sufferers with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal development issue receptor 2 (HER2)-negative ebc at excessive danger of recurrence.
NVS’ Share Worth Efficiency
Shares of Novartis have misplaced 5.2% up to now yr in opposition to the industry’s 0.3% development.
Picture Supply: Zacks Funding Analysis
What Our Mannequin Predicts for NVS
Our confirmed mannequin doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Novartis this time round. The mix of a optimistic Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Robust Purchase), 2 (Purchase) or 3 (Maintain) will increase the chances of an earnings beat. That’s not the case right here, as you will note under.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NVS is -0.89% because the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.81 per share whereas the Most Correct Estimate is pinned at $1.79. You possibly can uncover the perfect shares to purchase or promote earlier than they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The corporate at present carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Shares to Think about
Listed here are some drug/biotech shares which have the precise mixture of parts to beat on earnings this time round:
Exelixis EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +2.99% and a Zacks Rank #2 at current. You possibly can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
EXEL beat on earnings in three of the trailing 4 quarters and missed in a single, the typical shock being 26.5%. The corporate is scheduled to report fourth-quarter outcomes on Feb. 11, 2025.
Sarepta Therapeutics SRPT has an Earnings ESP of +18.55% and a Zacks Rank #2 at current.
SRPT beat on earnings in every of the trailing 4 quarters, the typical shock being 981.21%.
Amgen AMGN has an Earnings ESP of +3.15% and a Zacks Rank #3 at current.
AMGN beat on earnings in every of the trailing 4 quarters, delivering a mean shock of 4.10%. Amgen is scheduled to launch fourth-quarter outcomes on Feb. 4, 2025.
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Novartis AG (NVS) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (SRPT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the creator and don’t essentially mirror these of Nasdaq, Inc.
