Molina Healthcare, Inc. MOH is slated to report first-quarter 2024 outcomes on Apr 24, after market shut.
Q1 Estimates
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molina’s first-quarter earnings per share is pegged at $5.46, which signifies a deterioration of 6% from the prior-year quarter’s reported determine.
The consensus mark for revenues stands at $9.5 billion, suggesting 16.8% development from the year-ago quarter’s reported quantity.
Earnings Shock Historical past
Molina boasts a stable earnings shock historical past. Its backside line beat estimates in every of the trailing 4 quarters, the typical shock being 7.6%. That is depicted within the chart under:
Molina Healthcare, Inc Worth and EPS Shock
Molina Healthcare, Inc price-eps-surprise | Molina Healthcare, Inc Quote
Components to Notice
The rising buyer base within the Medicaid and Medicare companies of Molina Healthcare is predicted to have contributed to premium development, probably the most important contributor to the highest line of a well being insurer, within the first quarter.
We count on Medicaid premiums to develop 13.1% yr over yr to $7.2 billion within the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for the Medicare premiums is $1.3 billion, up 26.6% yr over yr.
Quite a few contract wins from federal and state authorities, renewal of agreements in addition to buyouts are prone to have contributed to membership development in MOH’s Medicaid and Medicare companies. An growing old U.S. inhabitants is prone to have sustained the stable demand for its Medicare plans within the first quarter. Nonetheless, the disenrollment of members from Medicaid through the redetermination course of is predicted to have restricted the membership figures of the Medicaid enterprise.
Membership development inside the Medicaid enterprise is predicted to extend 4.2% yr over yr, whereas the identical for MOH’s Medicare enterprise is projected to witness 23.4% year-over-year development.
Market membership, after falling 19.3% yr over yr in 2023, is predicted to develop in every quarter of 2024. We count on the metric to develop 21.4% yr over yr within the first quarter of 2024. The redetermination course of will gas membership development on this enterprise. Given the corporate’s 75% e book stays Silver, improved margins might need helped the underside line within the first quarter. The corporate goals to give attention to its Silver product, which can assist it maintain mid-single digit margins.
A positive rate of interest atmosphere is prone to have pushed greater funding revenue, which in flip, is prone to have aided income development within the first quarter. Our estimate for funding revenue is $96.2 million, which signifies a 35.5% rise yr over yr.
The medical care ratio (MCR) is predicted to have remained excessive within the to-be-reported quarter as a consequence of elevated medical bills. An uptick in MCR alerts decrease leftover premiums consequent to the fee of insurance coverage claims. Medicaid MCR is predicted to be impacted by the addition of latest shops, which function at the next MCR within the first yr. Rising supplemental advantages might need pushed Medicare MCR greater within the first quarter of 2024. We count on the general MCR to be 88.6% within the first quarter, which signifies a deterioration of 150 bps yr over yr.
Apart from, a excessive medical expense degree is prone to have harm the underside line of Molina Healthcare within the to-be-reported quarter. Our estimate for medical care prices signifies a 16.2% year-over-year enhance.
What Our Quantitative Mannequin Predicts
Our confirmed mannequin doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Molina this time round. The mixture of a optimistic Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Sturdy Purchase), 2 (Purchase) or 3 (Maintain) will increase the percentages of an earnings beat. Nonetheless, that’s not the case right here, as you see under.
Earnings ESP: Molina Healthcare has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You’ll be able to uncover the perfect shares earlier than they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: MOH presently carries a Zacks Rank of three.
Shares to Take into account
Whereas an earnings beat seems to be unsure for Molina Healthcare, listed below are some corporations from the broader Medical area that you could be need to take into account, as our mannequin exhibits that these have the fitting mixture of parts to publish an earnings beat this time round:
Encourage Medical Methods, Inc. INSP has an Earnings ESP of +18.04% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked participant. You’ll be able to see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Encourage Medical’s backside line for the to-be-reported quarter has improved 3.1% over the previous month. INSP beat earnings estimates in every of the previous 4 quarters, the typical shock being 353.6%.
Edwards Lifesciences Company EW has an Earnings ESP of +1.68% and a Zacks Rank #3.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Edwards Lifesciences’ backside line for the to-be-reported quarter signifies 3.2% year-over-year development. EW beat earnings estimates in two of the previous 4 quarters and met on the opposite events, with a mean shock of 0.8%.
Common Well being Companies, Inc. UHS has an Earnings ESP of +8.56% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked participant.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Common Well being’s earnings per share for the to-be-reported quarter signifies a 34.2% year-over-year soar. UHS beat earnings estimates in every of the previous 4 quarters, the typical shock being 5.9%.
Keep on prime of upcoming earnings bulletins with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the creator and don’t essentially replicate these of Nasdaq, Inc.
